Donald Trump was in pretty good position coming out of the GOP convention. He had a bit of a bump, and was ahead in a good number of polls and close in the others. I felt like he had about a 60% chance of winning at this point.
Then he had his dog days…about four horrible weeks. This started primarily with the public tiff with the Gold Star parents, and went downhill from there.
The polls turned ugly, very ugly, for the Donald.
It looked to some as if there was no way he could win. I had gone from 60-40 Trump to 70-30 Hillary would win – although plenty of time left in the game.
Then Trump changed his tone in a speech in Charlotte. Shortly after that, he announced that Steve Bannon of Breitbart would be the new CEO of a Campaign (what the hell ever that is) – and that Kelly Ann Conway would be his new campaign manager (we know what those are).
Meanwhile, Paul Manafort and his Russian oligarch connections (we know what those are too) were sidelined.
And the polls tightened. Trump really did demonstrate that if he was not drop dead offensive, that a weak candidate like Hillary would by default bleed support to him. Not to be confused with Megyn Kelly’s bleeding.
I’d have called it 50-50, maybe the slightest edge to Clinton.
Of course, this tamping down was counter intuitive. Bannon’s hire was seen as an indication that Trump would be even more Trumpish, not less. So did Bannon and Conway change his tune? Or was that something that started before Bannon and Conway that seemed to be working?
I could believe either.
Now however things appear to be headed downhill again. In the last 18 hours, we’ve seen Trump step into it with immigration and deportation, backing way off the stance his religious zealot fans projected for him.
To make matters worse, he then praised OBAMA for deporting a lot of people, and said he would do the same. (I’m Hillary Clinton and I approved this message).
Now multiple reports out there about Trump actually making money on his campaign. I guess by self-funding, Trump meant the campaign would be funding himself.
So what we’ve seen in the past day is the deterioration, if not destruction, of the first two pillars of the Trump candidacy. That would be his tough stand on illegal immigration – and his independence because he was rich and was self funding.
Reality 2 Trump Fantasy 0
Now I predict we’ll see a few good days ahead for Hillary. Back to 60-40 Hillary. But stay tuned. Debates, BLM attacks, terror attacks, and so on can change things in a minute.